Modelación del cambio de uso del suelo en la Zona Costera: Cuauhtemotzin-El Pailebot, Tabasco, México

Abstract

In this study, we analyzed the patterns of land use change on the coast “Cuauhtemotzin-El Pailebot”, Tabasco, by integrating a model of temporal space analysis (Land Change Modeler) and two spatial models of prediction (Markov Chains and Cellular Automata). This was due to the lack of data on the current state of the environmental situation in the coastal area of Tabasco, despite being relevant information to support future scenarios of land use change for environmental planning. The results show during 2000-2018 an outstanding loss of 10,644 ha of agricultural use, contrary to a high increase of 10,210 ha of wetland cover. In the same way, the loss 2,978 ha of tree vegetation was detected, given an increase of 988 ha of the urban area. The LCM analysis of the image of 2018 against the 2030 projection detected that agricultural areas continued to present high losses, given new increases in wetlands; while tree vegetation continued to show high rates of deforestation, with evident growth in the urban area. Current adverse patterns of land use change should be mitigated taking into account future projections through planning based on the design of an environmental and sustainable regulation program, which establishes ecological reserves, promotes environmental conservation and restoration through an orderly model territorial in the coastal area of Tabasco, Mexico.